Patrick Heuveline is Assistant Professor of Sociology and Research Associate of the Population Research Center at the University of Chicago. His recent work applies demographic analysis to such diverse topics as the Cambodian genocide and the HIV/AIDS pandemic.

Michel Guillot is a Post-Doctoral Fellow at the Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies, where his research focuses on formal demography and mortality in developing countries. He has a Ph.D. in Demography and Sociology from the University of Pennsylvania.

List of Boxes viii

List of Tables x

List of Figures xii

Preface xiv

Acknowledgments xv

1 Basic Concepts and Measures 1

1.1 Meaning of "Population" 1

1.2 The Balancing Equation of Population Change 2

1.3 The Structure of Demographic Rates 3

1.4 Period Rates and Person-years 5

1.5 Principal Period Rates in Demography 7

1.6 Growth Rates in Demography 8

1.7 Estimating Period Person-years 15

1.8 The Concept of a Cohort 16

1.9 Probabilities of Occurrence of Events 18

2 Age-specific Rates and Probabilities 21

2.1 Period Age-specific Rates 21

2.2 Age-standardization 24

2.3 Decomposition of Differences between Rates or Proportions 28

2.4 The Lexis Diagram 31

2.5 Age-specific Probabilities 32

2.6 Probabilities of Death Based on Mortality Experience of a Single Calendar Year 35

3 The Life Table and Single Decrement Processes 38

3.1 Period Life Tables 42

3.2 Strategies for Choosing a Set of N a X Values And/or for Making The N M X ¿ N Q X Conversion 44

3.3 The Very Young Ages 47

3.4 The Open-ended Age Interval 48

3.5 Review of Steps for Period Life Table Construction 48

3.6 Interpreting the Life Table 51

3.7 The Life Table Conceived as a Stationary Population 53

3.8 Mortality as a Continuous Process 59

3.9 Life Table Construction Revisited 61

3.10 Decomposing a Difference in Life Expectancies 64

3.11 Adaptation of the Life Table for Studying Other Single Decrement Processes 65

Appendix 3.1 Life Table Relationships in Continuous Notation 69

4 Multiple Decrement Processes 71

4.1 Multiple Decrement Tables for a Real Cohort 71

4.2 Multiple Decrement Life Tables for Periods 73

4.3 Some Basic Mathematics of Multiple Decrement Processes 78

4.4 Associated Single Decrement Tables from Period Data 80

4.5 Cause-specific Decomposition of Differences in Life Expectancies 84

4.6 Associated Single Decrement Tables from Current Status Data 86

4.7 Stationary Populations with Multiple Sources of Decrement 89

5 Fertility and Reproduction 92

5.1 Period Fertility Rates 93

5.2 Decomposition of Period Fertility 99

5.3 Cohort Fertility 101

5.4 Birth Interval Analysis 106

5.5 Reproduction Measures 113

6 Population Projection 117

6.1 Projections and Forecasts 117

6.2 Population Projection Methodology 118

6.3 The Cohort Component Method 119

6.4 Projections in Matrix Notation 129

6.5 Population Forecasts 131

6.6 The USBOC Projection of the US Population 133

6.7 Alternative Forecasting Methods 134

6.8 Accuracy and Uncertainty 135

6.9 Other Uses of Population Projections 136

7 The Stable Population Model 138

7.1 A Simplified Example of a Stable Population 138

7.2 Lotka's Demonstration of Conditions Producing a Stable Population 141

7.3 The Equations Characterizing a Stable Population 144

7.4 The "Stable Equivalent" Population 147

7.5 The Relation between the Intrinsic Growth Rate and the Net Reproduction Rate 150

7.6 The Effects of Changes in Fertility and Mortality on Age Structure, Growth Rates, Birth Rates, and Death Rates 155

7.7 The Momentum of Population Growth 161

7.8 Uses of the Stable Population Model in Demographic Estimation 167

8 Demographic Relations in Nonstable Populations 171

8.1 An Illustration 171

8.2 Relations in Continuous Age and Time 172

8.3 Extensions of the Basic Relations 176

8.4 Deconstructing the Age-specific Growth Rate 180

8.5 Age Structural Dynamics 182

8.6 Uses of Variable-r Methods in Demographic Estimation 184

9 Modeling Age Patterns of Vital Events 191

9.1 Model Age Patterns of Mortality 192

9.2 Age Patterns of Nuptiality 201

9.3 Age Patterns of Fertility 204

9.4 Model Age Patterns of Migration 208

10 Methods for Evaluating Data Quality 211

10.1 Statistical Methods for Identifying Coverage Errors 212

10.2 Statistical Methods for Evaluating Content Errors 214

10.3 Demographic Methods of Assessing Data Quality 215

11 Indirect Estimation Methods 224

11.1 Estimation of Child Mortality from Information on Child Survivorship: The Brass Method 224

11.2 Estimation of Adult Mortality Using Information on Orphanhood 233

11.3 The Sisterhood Method for Estimating Maternal Mortality 241

11.4 Estimating Mortality and Fertility from Maternity Histories 243

11.5 Indirect Estimation Methods Using Age Distributions at Two Censuses 246

12 Increment-Decrement Life Tables (Alberto Palloni, University of Wisconsin) 256

12.1 Introduction 256

12.2 Increment-Decrement Life Tables 257

12.3 Estimation of Increment-Decrement Life Tables 259

12.4 Formalization and Generalization of Relations 266

12.5 The Simplest Case: A Two-state System 270

12.6 Alternative Solutions: The Case of Constant Rates 271

12.7 Programs for the Calculation of Increment-Decrement Life Tables 271

References 273

Index 285