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Handbook of Exchange Rates
Buch von Jessica James (u. a.)
Sprache: Englisch

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Praise for Handbook of Exchange Rates

"This book is remarkable. I expect it to become the anchor reference for people working in the foreign exchange field."

--Richard K. Lyons, Dean and Professor of Finance, Haas School of Business, University of California Berkeley

"It is quite easily the most wide ranging treaty of expertise on the forex market I have ever come across. I will be keeping a copy close to my fingertips."

--Jim O'Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management

How should we evaluate the forecasting power of models? What are appropriate loss functions for major market participants? Is the exchange rate the only means of adjustment? Handbook of Exchange Rates answers these questions and many more, equipping readers with the relevant concepts and policies for working in today's international economic climate.

Featuring contributions written by leading specialists from the global financial arena, this handbook provides a collection of original ideas on foreign exchange (FX) rates in four succinct sections:

* Overview introduces the history of the FX market and exchange rate regimes, discussing key instruments in the trading environment as well as macro and micro approaches to FX determination.

* Exchange Rate Models and Methods focuses on forecasting exchange rates, featuring methodological contributions on the statistical methods for evaluating forecast performance, parity relationships, fair value models, and flow-based models.

* FX Markets and Products outlines active currency management, currency hedging, hedge accounting; high frequency and algorithmic trading in FX; and FX strategy-based products.

* FX Markets and Policy explores the current policies in place in global markets and presents a framework for analyzing financial crises.

Throughout the book, topics are explored in-depth alongside their founding principles. Each chapter uses real-world examples from the financial industry and concludes with a summary that outlines key points and concepts.

Handbook of Exchange Rates is an essential reference for fund managers and investors as well as practitioners and researchers working in finance, banking, business, and econometrics. The book also serves as a valuable supplement for courses on economics, business, and international finance at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.
Praise for Handbook of Exchange Rates

"This book is remarkable. I expect it to become the anchor reference for people working in the foreign exchange field."

--Richard K. Lyons, Dean and Professor of Finance, Haas School of Business, University of California Berkeley

"It is quite easily the most wide ranging treaty of expertise on the forex market I have ever come across. I will be keeping a copy close to my fingertips."

--Jim O'Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management

How should we evaluate the forecasting power of models? What are appropriate loss functions for major market participants? Is the exchange rate the only means of adjustment? Handbook of Exchange Rates answers these questions and many more, equipping readers with the relevant concepts and policies for working in today's international economic climate.

Featuring contributions written by leading specialists from the global financial arena, this handbook provides a collection of original ideas on foreign exchange (FX) rates in four succinct sections:

* Overview introduces the history of the FX market and exchange rate regimes, discussing key instruments in the trading environment as well as macro and micro approaches to FX determination.

* Exchange Rate Models and Methods focuses on forecasting exchange rates, featuring methodological contributions on the statistical methods for evaluating forecast performance, parity relationships, fair value models, and flow-based models.

* FX Markets and Products outlines active currency management, currency hedging, hedge accounting; high frequency and algorithmic trading in FX; and FX strategy-based products.

* FX Markets and Policy explores the current policies in place in global markets and presents a framework for analyzing financial crises.

Throughout the book, topics are explored in-depth alongside their founding principles. Each chapter uses real-world examples from the financial industry and concludes with a summary that outlines key points and concepts.

Handbook of Exchange Rates is an essential reference for fund managers and investors as well as practitioners and researchers working in finance, banking, business, and econometrics. The book also serves as a valuable supplement for courses on economics, business, and international finance at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.
Über den Autor
Billiam James is an activist, artist, designer and award-winning videographer. In 2013, he helped his wife, Franke, get her younger sister, Teresa, out of a nursing home and brought her to live with them. Together, they helped Teresa ask for an apology for the wrongful institutionalization. After two years of campaigning, the Ontario Minister of Health publicly apologized to Teresa. Billiam combines storytelling, visual art, music, and social activism to effect change. Over the past three decades, he has produced creative work addressing the following themes: disability rights, mental health, climate change, and free speech. He lives in Vancouver, BC, with Franke James and sister-in-law Teresa Heartchild.
Inhaltsverzeichnis

Preface xxiii

Contributors xxvii

part one Overview

1 Foreign Exchange Market Structure, Players, and Evolution 3

1.1 Introduction, 3

1.2 Geography and Composition of Currency Trading, 4

1.2.1 Which Currencies are Traded? 6

1.2.2 What Instruments are Traded? 9

1.2.3 How is Trading Regulated? 9

1.3 Players and Information in FX Markets, 11

1.3.1 Who Needs Liquidity? 12

1.3.2 Who Provides Liquidity? 15

1.3.3 Asymmetric Information and Exchange Rate Determination, 19

1.4 Electronic Trading Revolution in FX Markets, 21

1.4.1 The Telephone Era, 22

1.4.2 The Rise of the Computer, 22

1.4.3 Recent Developments in Electronic Trading, 30

1.5 Survey of Multibank FX Platforms, 35

1.6 Summary, 38

Glossary, 39

Acknowledgments, 41

References, 42

2 Macro Approaches to Foreign Exchange Determination 45

2.1 Introduction, 45

2.2 Models of the Nominal Exchange Rate, 46

2.2.1 The Monetary Model, 46

2.2.2 Portfolio Balance Models, 49

2.2.3 Empirical Evidence, 51

2.3 Real Models of the Real Exchange Rate, 54

2.3.1 Purchasing Power Parity, 55

2.3.2 Balassa-Samuelson and Productivity-Based Models, 56

2.3.3 Two-Good Models, 59

2.4 New Directions in Exchange-Rate Modeling, 60

2.4.1 Taking Reaction Functions Seriously, 60

2.4.2 The Impact of Financial Globalization, 63

2.4.3 The Risk Premium and Order Flow, 64

2.5 Conclusions, 65

Acknowledgments, 65

References, 66

3 Micro Approaches to Foreign Exchange Determination 73

3.1 Introduction, 73

3.2 Perspectives on Spot-Rate Dynamics, 74

3.2.1 Decomposition of Depreciation Rates, 74

3.2.2 Macro- and Microperspectives, 77

3.3 Currency Trading Models and their Implications, 80

3.3.1 The Portfolio Shifts Model, 81

3.3.2 Empirical Implications, 88

3.4 Exchange Rates, Order Flows, and the Macro Economy, 95

3.4.1 A Micro-Based Macro model, 96

3.4.2 Empirical Implications, 100

3.5 Conclusion, 105

Appendix, 105

3.6 Acknowledgment, 108

References, 108

4 The Exchange Rate in a Behavioral Finance Framework 111

4.1 Introduction, 111

4.1.1 Mainstream Exchange Rate Models, 111

4.1.2 Away from the Mainstream, 113

4.2 Exchange Rate Puzzles, 114

4.2.1 Disconnect Puzzle and Excess Volatility Puzzle, 114

4.2.2 Unit Root Property, 115

4.2.3 Volatility Clustering, 118

4.2.4 Fat-Tailed Distributed Exchange Rate Returns, 119

4.3 A Prototype Behavioral Model of the Foreign Exchange Market, 122

4.4 Conclusion, 127

References, 129

5 The Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes and Some Future Perspectives 133

5.1 Introduction, 133

5.2 A Brief History of Currency Regimes, 135

5.3 Performance of the Laisser-Faire Exchange Rate System, 1973-2010, 138

5.3.1 Market Discipline, 139

5.3.2 Economic Policy Coordination, 140

5.3.3 Integration of Emerging Market Countries into the Global Economy, 140

5.4 Trends in Currency Use, 141

5.4.1 Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009, 143

5.5 Prospects for the Future, 144

5.5.1 The Current System, 144

5.5.2 Toward a more Managed International Monetary System? 146

5.5.3 How and When Will Reform Occur? 150

5.5.4 A Global Nominal Anchor? 151

5.6 Concluding Comments, 153

Appendix A: A Formal Test of Hollowing Out, 154

References, 156

part two Exchange Rate Models and Methods

6 Purchasing Power Parity in Economic History 161

6.1 Introduction, 161

6.2 Categorization of Purchasing-Power-Parity Theories, 162

6.3 Historical Application of PPP: Premodern Periods, 163

6.3.1 Ancient Period, 163

6.3.2 Medieval Period, 164

6.3.3 Sixteenth-Century Spain, 165

6.4 Techniques of Testing PPP Theory in Economic-History Literature, 165

6.4.1 Comparative-Static Computation, 165

6.4.2 Regression Analysis, 165

6.4.3 Testing for Causality, 165

6.4.4 Nonstationarity and Spurious Regression, 166

6.4.5 Testing for Stationarity, 167

6.4.6 Cointegration Analysis, 167

6.5 Price Variable in PPP Computations, 168

6.6 Modern Period: Testing of PPP, 169

6.6.1 Early North America, 169

6.6.2 Bullionist Periods, 170

6.6.3 Floating Rates-Second-Half of Nineteenth Century, 171

6.6.4 Classic Metallic Standards, 172

6.6.5 World War I, 172

6.6.6 Floating Rates-1920s, 173

6.6.7 1930s, 175

6.6.8 Interwar Period, 175

6.6.9 Spain-Long Term, 176

6.6.10 Guatemala-Long Term, 176

6.7 Analysis of U.S. Return to Gold Standard in 1879, 177

6.8 Establishment and Assessment of a Fixed Exchange Rate in Interwar Period, 177

6.8.1 United Kingdom, 177

6.8.2 France, 179

6.9 Conclusions, 180

References, 181

7 Purchasing Power Parity in Tradable Goods 189

7.1 Introduction, 189

7.2 The LOP and Price Indices, 190

7.3 Empirical Evidence on the LOP, 194

7.3.1 Early Tests of the LOP, 194

7.3.2 The Border Effect, 194

7.3.3 Barriers to Arbitrage and Nonlinearities, 195

7.3.4 The Tradable Versus Nontradable Goods Dichotomy, 198

7.3.5 The Aggregation Bias and Micro Price Studies, 199

7.4 Purchasing Power Parity, 200

7.4.1 Transitory and Structural Disparities from Parity, 203

7.5 Aggregating from the LOP to PPP: What Can We Infer? 205

7.5.1 An Eyeball Analysis of PPP, 207

7.6 Conclusion and Implications, 213

Appendix: TAR Modeling, 214

Acknowledgments, 215

References, 215

8 Statistical and Economic Methods for Evaluating Exchange Rate Predictability 221

8.1 Introduction, 221

8.2 Models for Exchange Rate Predictability, 224

8.2.1 A Present Value Model for Exchange Rates, 224

8.2.2 Predictive Regressions, 226

8.3 Statistical Evaluation of Exchange Rate Predictability, 228

8.4 Economic Evaluation of Exchange Rate Predictability, 231

8.4.1 The Dynamic FX Strategy, 231

8.4.2 Mean-Variance Dynamic Asset Allocation, 231

8.4.3 Performance Measures, 232

8.4.4 Transaction Costs, 234

8.5 Combined Forecasts, 235

8.6 Empirical Results, 237

8.6.1 Data on Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals, 237

8.6.2 Predictive Regressions, 242

8.6.3 Statistical Evaluation, 244

8.6.4 Economic Evaluation, 249

8.7 Conclusion, 256

Appendix A: The Bootstrap Algorithm, 259

Acknowledgments, 260

References, 260

9 When Are Pooled Panel-Data Regression Forecasts of Exchange Rates More Accurate than the Time-Series Regression Forecasts? 265

9.1 Introduction, 265

9.2 Panel Data Exchange Rate Determination Studies, 267

9.3 Asymptotic Consequences of Pooling, 268

9.3.1 Predictive Regression Estimated on Full Sample, 268

9.3.2 Out-of-Sample Prediction, 271

9.4 Monte Carlo Study, 272

9.5 An Illustration with Data, 275

9.6 Conclusions, 278

References, 279

10 Carry Trades and Risk 283

10.1 Introduction, 283

10.2 The Carry Trade: Basic Facts, 285

10.2.1 What is a Carry Trade? 285

10.2.2 Measuring the Returns to the Carry Trade, 286

10.3 Pricing the Returns to the Carry Trade, 290

10.4 Empirical Findings, 293

10.4.1 Traditional Risk Factors, 293

10.4.2 Factors Derived from Currency Returns, 299

10.5 Time-Varying Risk and Rare Events, 308

10.6 Conclusion, 311

Acknowledgments, 311

References, 311

11 Currency Fair Value Models 313

11.1 Introduction, 313

11.2 Models/Taxonomy, 315

11.2.1 ''Adjusted PPP'': Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson and Penn Effects, 315

11.2.2 The Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Family of Models, 316

11.2.3 The Underlying Balance (UB) Approach, 320

11.2.4 External Sustainability (ES) Approach, 324

11.2.5 The Natural Real Exchange Rate (NATREX), 325

11.2.6 The Indirect Fair Value (IFV), 325

11.3 Implementation Choices and Model Characteristics, 328

11.3.1 Horizon/Frequency, 329

11.3.2 Direct Econometric Estimation Versus ''Methods of Calculation'', 331

11.3.3 Treatment of External Imbalances , 332

11.3.4 Real Versus Nominal Exchange Rates, 333

11.3.5 Bilateral Versus Effective Exchange Rate, 333

11.3.6 Time Series Versus Cross Section or Panel, 336

11.3.7 Model Maintenance, 336

11.4 Conclusion, 337

Acknowledgments, 338

References, 339

12 Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market 343

12.1 Introduction, 343

12.2 The Practice of Technical Analysis, 345

12.2.1 The Philosophy of Technical Analysis, 345

12.2.2 Types of Technical Analysis, 346

12.3 Studies of Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market, 350

12.3.1 Why Study Technical Analysis? 350

12.3.2 Survey Evidence on the Practice of Technical Analysis, 350

12.3.3 Computing Signals and Returns, 351

12.3.4 Early Studies: Skepticism before the Tide Turns, 353

12.3.5 Pattern Recognition, Intraday Data, and Other Exchange Rates, 353

12.4 Explaining The Success of Technical Analysis, 355

12.4.1 Data Snooping, Publication Bias, and Data Mining, 355

12.4.2 Temporal Variation in Trading Rule Returns, 357

12.4.3 Do Technical Trading Returns Compensate Investors for Bearing...

Details
Erscheinungsjahr: 2012
Genre: Mathematik
Rubrik: Naturwissenschaften & Technik
Medium: Buch
Inhalt: 856 S.
ISBN-13: 9780470768839
ISBN-10: 0470768835
Sprache: Englisch
Einband: Gebunden
Redaktion: James, Jessica
Marsh, Ian
Sarno, Lucio
Herausgeber: Jessica James/Ian Marsh/Lucio Sarno
Hersteller: Wiley
John Wiley & Sons
Maße: 240 x 161 x 50 mm
Von/Mit: Jessica James (u. a.)
Erscheinungsdatum: 03.07.2012
Gewicht: 1,431 kg
Artikel-ID: 106622786
Über den Autor
Billiam James is an activist, artist, designer and award-winning videographer. In 2013, he helped his wife, Franke, get her younger sister, Teresa, out of a nursing home and brought her to live with them. Together, they helped Teresa ask for an apology for the wrongful institutionalization. After two years of campaigning, the Ontario Minister of Health publicly apologized to Teresa. Billiam combines storytelling, visual art, music, and social activism to effect change. Over the past three decades, he has produced creative work addressing the following themes: disability rights, mental health, climate change, and free speech. He lives in Vancouver, BC, with Franke James and sister-in-law Teresa Heartchild.
Inhaltsverzeichnis

Preface xxiii

Contributors xxvii

part one Overview

1 Foreign Exchange Market Structure, Players, and Evolution 3

1.1 Introduction, 3

1.2 Geography and Composition of Currency Trading, 4

1.2.1 Which Currencies are Traded? 6

1.2.2 What Instruments are Traded? 9

1.2.3 How is Trading Regulated? 9

1.3 Players and Information in FX Markets, 11

1.3.1 Who Needs Liquidity? 12

1.3.2 Who Provides Liquidity? 15

1.3.3 Asymmetric Information and Exchange Rate Determination, 19

1.4 Electronic Trading Revolution in FX Markets, 21

1.4.1 The Telephone Era, 22

1.4.2 The Rise of the Computer, 22

1.4.3 Recent Developments in Electronic Trading, 30

1.5 Survey of Multibank FX Platforms, 35

1.6 Summary, 38

Glossary, 39

Acknowledgments, 41

References, 42

2 Macro Approaches to Foreign Exchange Determination 45

2.1 Introduction, 45

2.2 Models of the Nominal Exchange Rate, 46

2.2.1 The Monetary Model, 46

2.2.2 Portfolio Balance Models, 49

2.2.3 Empirical Evidence, 51

2.3 Real Models of the Real Exchange Rate, 54

2.3.1 Purchasing Power Parity, 55

2.3.2 Balassa-Samuelson and Productivity-Based Models, 56

2.3.3 Two-Good Models, 59

2.4 New Directions in Exchange-Rate Modeling, 60

2.4.1 Taking Reaction Functions Seriously, 60

2.4.2 The Impact of Financial Globalization, 63

2.4.3 The Risk Premium and Order Flow, 64

2.5 Conclusions, 65

Acknowledgments, 65

References, 66

3 Micro Approaches to Foreign Exchange Determination 73

3.1 Introduction, 73

3.2 Perspectives on Spot-Rate Dynamics, 74

3.2.1 Decomposition of Depreciation Rates, 74

3.2.2 Macro- and Microperspectives, 77

3.3 Currency Trading Models and their Implications, 80

3.3.1 The Portfolio Shifts Model, 81

3.3.2 Empirical Implications, 88

3.4 Exchange Rates, Order Flows, and the Macro Economy, 95

3.4.1 A Micro-Based Macro model, 96

3.4.2 Empirical Implications, 100

3.5 Conclusion, 105

Appendix, 105

3.6 Acknowledgment, 108

References, 108

4 The Exchange Rate in a Behavioral Finance Framework 111

4.1 Introduction, 111

4.1.1 Mainstream Exchange Rate Models, 111

4.1.2 Away from the Mainstream, 113

4.2 Exchange Rate Puzzles, 114

4.2.1 Disconnect Puzzle and Excess Volatility Puzzle, 114

4.2.2 Unit Root Property, 115

4.2.3 Volatility Clustering, 118

4.2.4 Fat-Tailed Distributed Exchange Rate Returns, 119

4.3 A Prototype Behavioral Model of the Foreign Exchange Market, 122

4.4 Conclusion, 127

References, 129

5 The Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes and Some Future Perspectives 133

5.1 Introduction, 133

5.2 A Brief History of Currency Regimes, 135

5.3 Performance of the Laisser-Faire Exchange Rate System, 1973-2010, 138

5.3.1 Market Discipline, 139

5.3.2 Economic Policy Coordination, 140

5.3.3 Integration of Emerging Market Countries into the Global Economy, 140

5.4 Trends in Currency Use, 141

5.4.1 Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009, 143

5.5 Prospects for the Future, 144

5.5.1 The Current System, 144

5.5.2 Toward a more Managed International Monetary System? 146

5.5.3 How and When Will Reform Occur? 150

5.5.4 A Global Nominal Anchor? 151

5.6 Concluding Comments, 153

Appendix A: A Formal Test of Hollowing Out, 154

References, 156

part two Exchange Rate Models and Methods

6 Purchasing Power Parity in Economic History 161

6.1 Introduction, 161

6.2 Categorization of Purchasing-Power-Parity Theories, 162

6.3 Historical Application of PPP: Premodern Periods, 163

6.3.1 Ancient Period, 163

6.3.2 Medieval Period, 164

6.3.3 Sixteenth-Century Spain, 165

6.4 Techniques of Testing PPP Theory in Economic-History Literature, 165

6.4.1 Comparative-Static Computation, 165

6.4.2 Regression Analysis, 165

6.4.3 Testing for Causality, 165

6.4.4 Nonstationarity and Spurious Regression, 166

6.4.5 Testing for Stationarity, 167

6.4.6 Cointegration Analysis, 167

6.5 Price Variable in PPP Computations, 168

6.6 Modern Period: Testing of PPP, 169

6.6.1 Early North America, 169

6.6.2 Bullionist Periods, 170

6.6.3 Floating Rates-Second-Half of Nineteenth Century, 171

6.6.4 Classic Metallic Standards, 172

6.6.5 World War I, 172

6.6.6 Floating Rates-1920s, 173

6.6.7 1930s, 175

6.6.8 Interwar Period, 175

6.6.9 Spain-Long Term, 176

6.6.10 Guatemala-Long Term, 176

6.7 Analysis of U.S. Return to Gold Standard in 1879, 177

6.8 Establishment and Assessment of a Fixed Exchange Rate in Interwar Period, 177

6.8.1 United Kingdom, 177

6.8.2 France, 179

6.9 Conclusions, 180

References, 181

7 Purchasing Power Parity in Tradable Goods 189

7.1 Introduction, 189

7.2 The LOP and Price Indices, 190

7.3 Empirical Evidence on the LOP, 194

7.3.1 Early Tests of the LOP, 194

7.3.2 The Border Effect, 194

7.3.3 Barriers to Arbitrage and Nonlinearities, 195

7.3.4 The Tradable Versus Nontradable Goods Dichotomy, 198

7.3.5 The Aggregation Bias and Micro Price Studies, 199

7.4 Purchasing Power Parity, 200

7.4.1 Transitory and Structural Disparities from Parity, 203

7.5 Aggregating from the LOP to PPP: What Can We Infer? 205

7.5.1 An Eyeball Analysis of PPP, 207

7.6 Conclusion and Implications, 213

Appendix: TAR Modeling, 214

Acknowledgments, 215

References, 215

8 Statistical and Economic Methods for Evaluating Exchange Rate Predictability 221

8.1 Introduction, 221

8.2 Models for Exchange Rate Predictability, 224

8.2.1 A Present Value Model for Exchange Rates, 224

8.2.2 Predictive Regressions, 226

8.3 Statistical Evaluation of Exchange Rate Predictability, 228

8.4 Economic Evaluation of Exchange Rate Predictability, 231

8.4.1 The Dynamic FX Strategy, 231

8.4.2 Mean-Variance Dynamic Asset Allocation, 231

8.4.3 Performance Measures, 232

8.4.4 Transaction Costs, 234

8.5 Combined Forecasts, 235

8.6 Empirical Results, 237

8.6.1 Data on Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals, 237

8.6.2 Predictive Regressions, 242

8.6.3 Statistical Evaluation, 244

8.6.4 Economic Evaluation, 249

8.7 Conclusion, 256

Appendix A: The Bootstrap Algorithm, 259

Acknowledgments, 260

References, 260

9 When Are Pooled Panel-Data Regression Forecasts of Exchange Rates More Accurate than the Time-Series Regression Forecasts? 265

9.1 Introduction, 265

9.2 Panel Data Exchange Rate Determination Studies, 267

9.3 Asymptotic Consequences of Pooling, 268

9.3.1 Predictive Regression Estimated on Full Sample, 268

9.3.2 Out-of-Sample Prediction, 271

9.4 Monte Carlo Study, 272

9.5 An Illustration with Data, 275

9.6 Conclusions, 278

References, 279

10 Carry Trades and Risk 283

10.1 Introduction, 283

10.2 The Carry Trade: Basic Facts, 285

10.2.1 What is a Carry Trade? 285

10.2.2 Measuring the Returns to the Carry Trade, 286

10.3 Pricing the Returns to the Carry Trade, 290

10.4 Empirical Findings, 293

10.4.1 Traditional Risk Factors, 293

10.4.2 Factors Derived from Currency Returns, 299

10.5 Time-Varying Risk and Rare Events, 308

10.6 Conclusion, 311

Acknowledgments, 311

References, 311

11 Currency Fair Value Models 313

11.1 Introduction, 313

11.2 Models/Taxonomy, 315

11.2.1 ''Adjusted PPP'': Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson and Penn Effects, 315

11.2.2 The Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Family of Models, 316

11.2.3 The Underlying Balance (UB) Approach, 320

11.2.4 External Sustainability (ES) Approach, 324

11.2.5 The Natural Real Exchange Rate (NATREX), 325

11.2.6 The Indirect Fair Value (IFV), 325

11.3 Implementation Choices and Model Characteristics, 328

11.3.1 Horizon/Frequency, 329

11.3.2 Direct Econometric Estimation Versus ''Methods of Calculation'', 331

11.3.3 Treatment of External Imbalances , 332

11.3.4 Real Versus Nominal Exchange Rates, 333

11.3.5 Bilateral Versus Effective Exchange Rate, 333

11.3.6 Time Series Versus Cross Section or Panel, 336

11.3.7 Model Maintenance, 336

11.4 Conclusion, 337

Acknowledgments, 338

References, 339

12 Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market 343

12.1 Introduction, 343

12.2 The Practice of Technical Analysis, 345

12.2.1 The Philosophy of Technical Analysis, 345

12.2.2 Types of Technical Analysis, 346

12.3 Studies of Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market, 350

12.3.1 Why Study Technical Analysis? 350

12.3.2 Survey Evidence on the Practice of Technical Analysis, 350

12.3.3 Computing Signals and Returns, 351

12.3.4 Early Studies: Skepticism before the Tide Turns, 353

12.3.5 Pattern Recognition, Intraday Data, and Other Exchange Rates, 353

12.4 Explaining The Success of Technical Analysis, 355

12.4.1 Data Snooping, Publication Bias, and Data Mining, 355

12.4.2 Temporal Variation in Trading Rule Returns, 357

12.4.3 Do Technical Trading Returns Compensate Investors for Bearing...

Details
Erscheinungsjahr: 2012
Genre: Mathematik
Rubrik: Naturwissenschaften & Technik
Medium: Buch
Inhalt: 856 S.
ISBN-13: 9780470768839
ISBN-10: 0470768835
Sprache: Englisch
Einband: Gebunden
Redaktion: James, Jessica
Marsh, Ian
Sarno, Lucio
Herausgeber: Jessica James/Ian Marsh/Lucio Sarno
Hersteller: Wiley
John Wiley & Sons
Maße: 240 x 161 x 50 mm
Von/Mit: Jessica James (u. a.)
Erscheinungsdatum: 03.07.2012
Gewicht: 1,431 kg
Artikel-ID: 106622786
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