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Cover: 9780197619131 | War and Chance | Assessing Uncertainty in International Politics
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War and Chance
Assessing Uncertainty in International Politics
Taschenbuch von Jeffrey A Friedman
Sprache: Englisch

32,80 €*

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Beschreibung
Over the past two decades, the most serious problems with U.S. foreign policy have revolved around the challenge of assessing uncertainty. Past experiences have shown that there is an urgent need to find ways of improving the ways in which foreign policy analysts assess uncertainty, and the ways in which foreign policy decision makers account for risk when evaluating high-stakes choices. This book shows shows how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices.
Over the past two decades, the most serious problems with U.S. foreign policy have revolved around the challenge of assessing uncertainty. Past experiences have shown that there is an urgent need to find ways of improving the ways in which foreign policy analysts assess uncertainty, and the ways in which foreign policy decision makers account for risk when evaluating high-stakes choices. This book shows shows how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices.
Über den Autor
Jeffrey A. Friedman is Assistant Professor of Government at Dartmouth College. His research focuses on the ways in which risk and uncertainty shape high-stakes policy decisions, particularly in the domain of national security. His research has been published by the American Journal of Political Science, International Organization, and International Security, among other journals. He received his Ph.D. from Harvard University in 2013.
Inhaltsverzeichnis
  • Acknowledgments

  • Introduction: "One of the Things You Learn as President Is That You're

  • Always Dealing with Probabilities"

  • Chapter 1: Pathologies of Probability Assessment

  • Chapter 2: Subjective Probability and International Politics

  • Chapter 3: The Value of Precision in Probability Assessment

  • Chapter 4: Dispelling Illusions of Rigor

  • Chapter 5: The Politics of Uncertainty and Blame

  • Chapter 6: Analysis and Decision

  • Chapter 7: Practical Implications and Directions for Further Research

  • Appendix

Details
Erscheinungsjahr: 2021
Genre: Importe, Politikwissenschaften
Rubrik: Wissenschaften
Medium: Taschenbuch
Inhalt: Kartoniert / Broschiert
ISBN-13: 9780197619131
ISBN-10: 0197619134
Sprache: Englisch
Einband: Kartoniert / Broschiert
Autor: Friedman, Jeffrey A
Hersteller: Oxford University Press
Verantwortliche Person für die EU: Produktsicherheitsverantwortliche/r, Europaallee 1, D-36244 Bad Hersfeld, gpsr@libri.de
Maße: 231 x 155 x 15 mm
Von/Mit: Jeffrey A Friedman
Erscheinungsdatum: 24.08.2021
Gewicht: 0,363 kg
Artikel-ID: 120379761
Über den Autor
Jeffrey A. Friedman is Assistant Professor of Government at Dartmouth College. His research focuses on the ways in which risk and uncertainty shape high-stakes policy decisions, particularly in the domain of national security. His research has been published by the American Journal of Political Science, International Organization, and International Security, among other journals. He received his Ph.D. from Harvard University in 2013.
Inhaltsverzeichnis
  • Acknowledgments

  • Introduction: "One of the Things You Learn as President Is That You're

  • Always Dealing with Probabilities"

  • Chapter 1: Pathologies of Probability Assessment

  • Chapter 2: Subjective Probability and International Politics

  • Chapter 3: The Value of Precision in Probability Assessment

  • Chapter 4: Dispelling Illusions of Rigor

  • Chapter 5: The Politics of Uncertainty and Blame

  • Chapter 6: Analysis and Decision

  • Chapter 7: Practical Implications and Directions for Further Research

  • Appendix

Details
Erscheinungsjahr: 2021
Genre: Importe, Politikwissenschaften
Rubrik: Wissenschaften
Medium: Taschenbuch
Inhalt: Kartoniert / Broschiert
ISBN-13: 9780197619131
ISBN-10: 0197619134
Sprache: Englisch
Einband: Kartoniert / Broschiert
Autor: Friedman, Jeffrey A
Hersteller: Oxford University Press
Verantwortliche Person für die EU: Produktsicherheitsverantwortliche/r, Europaallee 1, D-36244 Bad Hersfeld, gpsr@libri.de
Maße: 231 x 155 x 15 mm
Von/Mit: Jeffrey A Friedman
Erscheinungsdatum: 24.08.2021
Gewicht: 0,363 kg
Artikel-ID: 120379761
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